IDIS „Viitorul” hosts policy briefing in Chișinău on sectoral interdependencies

 

On 28 May in Chișinău, IDIS ‘Viitorul’ hosted its second EU-STRAT policy briefing. The briefing revealed the findings of EU-STRAT’s research on trade, security, energy, and migration interdependencies of the Eastern Partnership countries with the EU and Russia. During the first panel, the participants discussed vulnerabilities of the EaP countries in the energy and trade sectors. The main shortcomings of the Republic of Moldova noted by the roundtable experts were: the absence of alternative interconnections, the need for an independent regulatory institution, maladministration, and need for settlement of the gas debt issue and cartel arrangements.


For more information on the briefing, stay tuned for our next newsletter in early July!


You can also watch the whole event on Youtube below:

Working Paper No. 11 has arrived

Working paper / June 2018

EU-STRAT has released its eleventh working paper. Click on the title below to download the PDF.


Working Paper No.11 (2018): Varieties of Social Orders: The political and economic fundamentals of hybrid (in)stability in the post-Soviet space


Authors: Esther Ademmer, Julia Langbein and Tanja A. Börzel


Abstract:

This paper takes the seminal work of Douglass North, John Wallis and Barry Weingast on varieties of social orders as a starting point to introduce a refined typology of limited access orders (LAOs) that integrates the political and economic fundamentals of hybrid (in)stability. We find that LAOs do not necessarily constrain access in the political and economic sphere to the same extent. Some combine relative economic openness with strictly limited political competition, while others constrain access to economic resources but allow for a considerable degree of political opening. This latter type proves to be the most instable type of LAO. The different strategies used by dominant elites to maintain stability in various types of LAOs provide insights into how open access institutions interact with limited access institutions in hybrid regimes. While we develop our typology for six post-Soviet countries from the third wave of democratization that function as LAOs, our typology may be applied to other hybrid regimes as well.

 

 

Tenth EU-STRAT Working Paper is here!

Working paper / April 2018

EU-STRAT’s tenth working paper is out. Click on the paper title below to download PDF.


Working Paper No.10 (2018): Interdependencies of Eastern Partnership Countries with the EU and Russia: Three Case Studies.


Authors: Kamil Całus, Laure Delcour, Ildar Gazizullin, Tadeusz Iwański, Marta Jaroszewicz, and Kamil Klysiński


Abstract: 

Asymmetric interdependencies with Russia have been identified as a key factor influencing domestic change in response to EU policies in Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries. As argued in the literature, interdependencies can either facilitate or constrain EU-demanded change, depending on whether they are associated with EaP countries’ sensitivity or vulnerability to Russia’s policies. In this paper, we provide a systematic mapping and process-tracing of interdependencies in three EaP countries (Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine) and four key sectors (trade, migration, energy and security). We further explore Russia’s use of interdependencies and attempts at issue-linkage between the above sectors. Finally, we scrutinize domestic elites’ responses to Russia’s strategies.

Drawing upon the distinction between sensitivity and vulnerability, we seek in particular to identify the conditions under which Russia’s policies effectively incentivize or disincentivize the political elites in EaP countries to engage with the EU’s and Russia’s policies. We find that Russia’s attempts to link issues (even if to varying degrees across countries and sectors) effectively undermined further integration with the EU in those cases where policy alternatives were too costly for the incumbent elites. By contrast, Russia’s use of nexuses between different policy sectors have facilitated or even supported integration with the EU when the latter offered an affordable alternative to the EaP countries.

Ninth EU-STRAT Working Paper is out!

Working paper / April 2018

EU-STRAT’s ninth working paper is out. Click on the paper title below to download PDF.


Working Paper No.9 (2018): What Kinds of Messages Can Influence Citizen Support for Closer Cooperation with the European Union? Evidence from the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood.


Authors: 
Dimiter Toshkov, Honorata Mazepus, and Antoaneta Dimitrova


Abstract:

This paper explores what factors might influence citizen preferences for closer cooperation with the EU and/or Russia in three countries from the EU’s Eastern neighbourhood: Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine. The citizens in these countries have been exposed to competing narratives and policy frames, advanced by both the EU and Russia, about the purposes and effects of closer cooperation. We first develop theoretical ideas about the potential influence of framing on public attitudes towards international cooperation. We then study these ideas empirically using a survey experiment in which six different frames about international cooperation are embedded in short vignettes. The frames highlight themes such as economy, security, values or identity and were developed based on previous research on factors that influence preferences on international cooperation. The experiment was implemented among a diverse and relatively large sample of citizens in the three countries.

Our main conclusions are that thematic neutral frames of international cooperation have only very limited potential to influence directly people’s support for cooperation with the EU, but might be more potent in affecting the beliefs of people about the effects of cooperation with different partners on desired outcomes, such as economic benefits, security, and good governance. These beliefs as such are strong predictors of the preferences for international cooperation partners. In addition to the results from this experimental study, we present an analysis of the relationship between the preferred media source of news for people and their preferences for international cooperation partners. Furthermore, we explore the correlates of support for cooperation with the EU with an emphasis on the potential importance of media use. We find that there are no strong differences in average levels of support for the EU among people who use different media sources to get trustworthy news, with the possible exception of Belarus.

New policy comment is out!

Policy comment / March 2018

One country – two economic systems? The ‘partial reforms’ experiment in Belarus


by Kamil Kłysiński (OSW)


“On December 22, 2017, Belarusian president Alexandr Lukashenka signed two important decrees: the first ‘On the Development of Entrepreneurship’ and the second ‘On the Development of the Digital Economy’. The degrees foresee an unprecedented opening of the private sector in Belarus, and give strong legal and tax incentives to the IT sector. They are the latest expression of a path that Belarus has taken over the past few years, in the course of which the IT sector has become a priority issue in economic policy.

At the same time, Belarus has firmly neglected recent calls by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to restructure its state-owned sector. The Belarusian authorities have thus sent conflicting signals by building islands of a modern economy based on high-tech technologies, a developed service sector and private entrepreneurship, while still sustaining the old ineffective economic model of command-and-control.(…)”

 


Download (PDF)

*

Did you like it? Please take a look at our previous policy comments!


Eighth EU-STRAT Working Paper is out!

Working paper / March 2018

EU-STRAT’s eighth working paper is out. Click on the paper title below to download PDF.


Working Paper No.8 (2018): How Bilateral, Regional and International Regimes Shape the Extent, Significance and Nature of Interdependencies


Authors: 
Rilka Dragneva, Laure Delcour, Marta Jaroszewicz, Szymon Kardaś, and Carolina Ungureanu


Abstract:

In discussing relations between post-Soviet countries, interdependence, and dependence on Russia in particular, is often portrayed as a natural inevitability. What this ignores, however, is that interdependence can be created and perpetuated by policy itself. It is the outcome of a political game where a range of interests is involved, resulting in a set of governance arrangements or regimes. Understanding this dynamic has important implications for the effectiveness of the European Union’s engagement in the region.

This paper examines what regimes interdependence between Russia and its neighbours (Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine) are embedded in, but also how these arrangements affect interdependence in their own right. The focus here is on formal international agreements between these countries, but also on less institutionalized interactions and transactional dealings governing relations across four sectors of notable interdependence: trade, migration, energy and security. The sectoral analysis is based on a number of key theoretical propositions we formulate in the beginning of the paper about how the nature and characteristics of governing regimes affect interdependence or that is, the countries’ sensitivity and vulnerability to Russia’s actions as per Keohane and Nye’s framework. Importantly, we examine regimes not in isolation but note that certain subject matters are often regulated by a set of overlapping bilateral, regional or international agreements. Similarly, we note that interdependence is affected by interactions between regimes across sectors, reflecting a propensity for issue linkage.

We find that, despite variations in nature and design, formal regimes developed post-USSR provide few constraints on Russia’s unilateral actions and have thus served to perpetuate the neighbours’ sensitivity. Overlaps with regional frameworks have been important particularly with regard to Belarus, but have produced similar effects. International regimes, such as the World Trade Organization and international arbitration, have the potential to induce a rule-based dynamics. However, the reduction of vulnerability is ultimately conditional on the progress of domestic reform. The implications for the European Union, which relies on sophisticated, rule-based regimes in marked contrast with Russia’s reliance on weak and non-transparent arrangements, are many and deserve further exploration. They all, however, point to the argument that the European Union should offer not only rule-dense regimes to the Eastern partners, but frameworks offering actual policy alternatives and allowing the prioritization of key domestic reforms.

Fourth EU-STRAT newsletter is available!

Newsletter / January 2018


We have just released  EU-STRAT’s fourth newsletter!


Highlights include:

  • Full coverage of the sessions and roundtable that took place during EU-STRAT’s Midterm Conference on October 5th and 6th 2017

 

  • “Georgia should consistently knock on the EU’s and NATO’s doors”: An interview with Kakha Gogolashvili (Senior Fellow and Director of EU Studies at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies / member of EU-STRAT’s Advisory Board)

 

  • “The European Parliament has laid the foundations for a breakthrough in the EaP”: Policy Comment by Laima Andrikienė (MEP)

 

  • Overviews of EU-STRAT’s latest working papers

 

…and more! 


Click here to download the fourth issue of EU-STRAT’s newsletter!


Detailed report summarizing EU-STRAT’s midterm conference sessions is out!

EU-STRAT’s midterm conference entitled “The EU and Eastern Partnership Countries: An Inside-Out Analysis and Strategic Assessment” took place in Vilnius from October 5 to October 6, 2017.

The midterm conference was dedicated to presenting EU-STRAT’s intermediary research findings related to varieties of social orders in Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries, interdependencies with and soft power by the EU and Russia, and featured insights and debates on the future of the EaP. Bringing together participants from the EU and EaP countries, as well as third countries, the project team aimed to raise awareness of EU-STRAT’s research agenda, which is highly relevant to the region’s current political situation.

The conference was opened with keynote speeches and welcoming addresses by:

  • Asta Skaisgirytė, Political Director of the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry
  • Professor Leszek Balcerowicz, Head of the International Comparative Studies Department at the Warsaw School of Economics and former advisor to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko,
  • Vassilis Maragos, Head of Unit at the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations (DG NEAR).
  • Andrius Kubilius, former Prime Minister of Lithuania and current Member of the Lithuanian Parliament

The welcoming addresses and keynote speeches began the two-day conference, which included six panel discussions on different topics of EU-STRAT research as well as a round table on the future of the EaP.


If you would like to know more about the conference and read about the keypoints of all the discussions which took place during the event please take a look at:

the report summarizing the EU-STRAT’s midterm conference and its findings. 


Workshop in Tbilisi, 20-21 November 2017

As part of the Horizon2020 project EU-STRAT –The EU and Eastern Partnership Countries: An Inside Out Analysis and Strategic Assessment – Katharina Hoffmann and Ole Frahm from the University of St Gallen conducted a workshop in Tbilisi on 20-21 November 2017 with mostly young researchers and practitioners from five Eastern Partnership region countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine). In addition to the main objective of jointly developing a common framework for event data collection on Eastern Partnership countries’ bilateral relations with Turkey, another key aim was to transfer knowledge on best practices of social science methods.

In organizing and running the workshop which took place at Fabrika, a converted former sewing factory, the team from St Gallen cooperated closely with the Caucasus Research Resource Center in Tbilisi with whom the university had already collaborated as part of the FP7 project ISSICEU (www.issiceu.eu). The meeting in Georgia therefore also served to strengthen and enlarge an existing network of researchers from the region. Befitting the occasion, the conversation at the closing dinner was held in a mixture of German, English, Russian and Turkish.

A follow-up event is planned for 2018 to ensure that all participants can make ample use of the data both during the project and beyond.

Seventh EU-STRAT Working Paper is out!

Working paper / November 2017

EU-STRAT’s seventh working paper is out. Click on the paper title below to download PDF.


Working Paper No.7 (2017): Assessing Legal and Political Compatibility between the European Union Engagement Strategies and Membership of the Eurasian Economic Union


Authors: 
Rilka Dragneva, Laure Delcour and Laurynas Jonavicius


Abstract:

One of the challenges to EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) policy relates to structuring cooperation with countries
that have opted for membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), such as Belarus and Armenia, while
avoiding the problems faced in the Ukraine crisis of 2013-2014. Acting on its revised European Neighbourhood
Policy, the EU has sought to develop differentiated and flexible tools of engagement with the EaP countries,
including a new type of agreement with Armenia, the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement
(CEPA). Delivering on this agenda, however, requires clarity on the constraints and limits imposed by membership
in the EAEU. The EU has tended to establish such limits by reliance on the technocratic analysis of current
obligations contained in formal legal agreements.

Yet, as revealed by the Ukraine crisis, this approach has not necessarily reflected the geopolitical realities in the region and Russia’s view of integration and its compatibility with EU’s policies, in particular. This paper argues that establishing the limits imposed by EAEU membership requires an assessment of the range of legal as well as non-legal levers at play in individual member states in relation to Russia’s integration projects. What matters is how Russia as well as its Eurasian partners play the ‘integration game’, and the degree to which political elites in Belarus and Armenia can manoeuvre a space for independent engagement with the EU. This is necessary because of the particular nature of the EAEU, defined by a mixture between current and future commitments, problematic institutional boundaries between delegated
powers and members’ commitments, and the prevalence of power relations within a highly asymmetric huband-spoke
context. In this context, Russia has a continued ability to interpret the nature of the commitments undertaken and their compatibility with overlapping international agreements, and enforce it using critical interdependencies of the members.

We examine how the ‘compatibility space’ is negotiated by elites in Belarus and Armenia, and elaborate on the case of CEPA as the most recent test to complementarity of integration
engagements in the region.