Доклад EU-STRAT посвящен влиянию программ научного сотрудничества ЕС на страны Восточного партнерства доступен на русском языке!

Рабочий доклад /  Август 2017


Рабочий доклад EU-STRAT № 5 (2017): Влияние программ научного сотрудничества ЕС на страны Восточного партнерства: научный результат и влияние на общество


Авторы: Гонората Мазепус, Димитер Тошков, Татьяна Чулицкая и Инна Ромашевская


Резюме:

Научное сотрудничество между Европейским Союзом (ЕС) и его восточными соседями существенно выросло с начала 2000-ных годов. Это сотрудничество имеет серьезный потенциал влияния не только на секторы науки и инноваций, но и на практики и ценности научного сообщества, научную политику и общество в целом в странах Восточного партнерства (ВП). В данной работе мы ставим целью оценить влияние научного сотрудничества с ЕС, фокусируясь на трех странах Восточного партнерства: Беларуси, Молдове и Украине. Наш анализ состоит из двух частей: во-первых, мы рассматриваем научное влияние и проводим библиометрический анализ, который содержит некоторые важные индикаторы научных результатов в Беларуси, Молдове и Украине в 2000 – 2016 годах; во-вторых, мы анализируем более широкое его влияние на научное сообщество, институты и общество при помощи новых данных, полученных из интервью с экспертами. В разрезе научных результатов мы приходим к выводу, что, хотя ЕС и не трансформировал радикально науку в странах ВП, он, скорее всего, предоставил ей существенную поддержку для выживания. Мы также предоставляем четкое доказательство позитивного влияния сотрудничества с ЕС на участвующие институции (institutions) из стран ВП, и недостаток доказательств для того, чтобы говорить о его воздействии на публичную политику либо о существенном влиянии на общество в целом.

New policy brief on varieties of Limited Access Orders in the Eastern Partnership is out!


Title:Varieties of Limited Access Orders in the Eastern Partnership countries: Implications for EU engagement

Authors: Julia Langbein and Esther Ademmer

May 2019


Resume:

Ten years ago, the Eastern Partnership (EaP) was launched as the Eastern dimension of the European Neighbourhood Policy. It aims at promoting political and economic reforms that would bring the six EaP countries, namely Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, closer to EU norms and standards. As of today, developments in the EaP countries reveal mixed trends: some countries, such as Armenia and Ukraine, have indeed witnessed instances of political and economic reform resulting in increased competition in both spheres and which could eventually pave the way towards democracy and prosperity. Notwithstanding, all six countries continue to operate as hybrid regimes combining elements of democracy and autocracy, albeit to different degrees. Moreover, in all EaP countries, sustainable and inclusive economic growth is hampered by clientelistic rent-seeking elites who restrict economic competition and the emergence of market-enhancing institutions.


Our research project EU-STRAT set out to examine what room for action there is for the EU to promote political and economic opening in the six EaP countries and what strategies could be (in)effective to achieve this goal. In so doing, we placed the analysis of domestic conditions at the centre of our analysis. EU-STRAT is premised on the idea that deep knowledge of the dynamics of social orders, with specific attention to differences in how dominant elites restrict access to political and economic resources, is fundamental to make an informed assessment of whether and how the EU can help to bring about political and economic opening in the various EaP countries.


To this end, EU-STRAT broadly understands the six EaP countries as Limited Access Orders (LAOs) where the ruling elite restricts access to economic and political resources for private gains. This is in contrast to Open Access Orders (OAOs) based on economic and political competition. EU-STRAT’s research shows that the six EaP countries vary in how incumbents undermine a level playing field by restricting or opening access to political and economic resources. Some allow for relatively balanced forms of access to political and economic resources, while in others, this access is unbalanced, allowing either for more access to political resources than to economic resources or posing fewer limits on accessing economic resources than on political ones. This research has also shown that the various types of LAOs are associated with distinct operating logics underlying hybrid (in)stability that helped us form expectations about what kind of change is relevant for moving them towards more openness or closure. In this policy brief, we recap these insights and combine them with further insights from research under EU-STRAT in order to derive specific policy recommendations for the EU’s current engagement with various EaP countries.

EU-STRAT at 10th Anniversary Eastern Partnership conference in Brussels

EU-STRAT colleagues from the Centre for Eastern Studies (Warsaw), School of Young Managers in Public Administration (Minsk), Freie Universität Berlin, IDIS Viitorul (Chișinău), and the University of Birmingham gathered in Brussels on Tuesday for the 10th Anniversary Eastern Partnership conference, organized by the European Commission. Discussions centred on achievements and challenges in delivering concrete results to citizens as well as looking forward at the future of the Eastern Partnership.

Рабочий доклад EU-STRAT № 9 теперь на русском языке!

Рабочий доклад / Апрель 2018

Это исследование направлено на изучение того, какие факторы могут повлиять на предпочтения граждан относительно более тесного сотрудничества с ЕС или Россией в трех странах, которые являются восточными соседями стран Европейского Союза: Беларуси, Молдове и Украине.


Рабочий доклад EU-STRAT № 9 (2018): Какого рода послания могут усилить поддержку гражданами более тесного сотрудничества с Европейским Союзом?


Авторы: Димитер Тошков, Гонората Мазепус и Антоанета Димитрова


Резюме:

Это исследование направлено на изучение того, какие факторы могут повлиять на предпочтения граждан относительно более тесного сотрудничества с ЕС или Россией в трех странах, которые являются восточными соседями стран Европейского Союза: Беларуси, Молдове и Украине. Жители этих трех стран являются адресатами конкурирующих нарративов и политических установок о целях и результатах более тесного сотрудничества, источником которых являются ЕС и Россия. Вначале мы разовьём теоретические идеи об их возможном влиянии на общественные установки по поводу международного сотрудничества. Затем мы эмпирически исследуем эти идеи, используя опросный эксперимент, в котором шесть разных фреймов относительно международного сотрудничества закреплены в шести коротких описаниях («виньетках»). В них привлекается внимание к таким темам, как экономика, безопасность, ценности и идентичность, которые были разработаны на основании предыдущих исследований факторов, влияющих на международное сотрудничество. Этот эксперимент был реализован среди разнообразной и достаточно большой выборки граждан в трёх странах. Наш главный вывод заключается в том, что тематически нейтральные рамки международного сотрудничества обладают лишь очень ограниченным потенциалом прямого влияния на общественную поддержку сотрудничества с ЕС. В то же время, они в большей степени способны влиять на представления людей о результатах сотрудничества с тем или партнёром в том, что касается желаемых результатов, таких, как экономические преимущества, безопасность или хорошее управление. Эти представления позволяют с большой точностью предсказать индивидуальные предпочтения в выборе партнеров для международного сотрудничества. Дополняя результаты экспериментального исследования, мы также представляем анализ взаимоотношений между предпочитаемым медиа-источником новостных сообщений у участников эксперимента, и их предпочтениями в выборе партнера для международного сотрудничества. Далее, мы исследуем корреляты поддержки сотрудничества с ЕС с акцентом на потенциальную важность использования СМИ. Мы обнаружили, что среди лиц, использующих различные источники для получения новостей, которым они доверяют, не наблюдается значимых различий в уровне поддержки ЕС, исключая, возможно, Беларусь.

EU-STRAT Final Conference starts this Thursday! (11-12 April 2019).

We would like to kindly invite you once again the EU-STRAT Final Conference which will be held on the premises of Leiden University in the Wijnhaven Building, Turfmarkt 99 2511 DP, in The Hague on 11-12 April 2019.


During the event we will present to you the most recent findings of EU-STRAT researchers on interdependencies between EU, Russia and the countries of the region, the implementation of Association agreements and scenarios for the future economic and political developments in the region.


Please click here to download the programme of the event!

There is no pre-registration required!

See you in Hague!


Policy brief on scientific cooperation in the Eastern neighbourhood is out!


Title: Scientific cooperation in the Eastern neighbourhood
Authors: Dimiter Toshkov, Honorata Mazepus, Ina Ramasheuskaya, Tatsiana Chulitskaya and Natallia Rabava
Release date: April 2019


Under the framework of the EU-STRAT project, we set out to take stock of the extent of participation of the EaP countries, with a focus on Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine, in the scientific programmes of the EU. We also sought to evaluate the scientific and broader societal and policy impact of scientific cooperation with the EU on these countries. In this policy brief, we summarize the results of our research and offer policy recommendations that can further enhance the broader impact of the scientific cooperation programmes with the EU.


Release of policy brief dedicated to reforms in energy, transport and environment


Title: Making Association Work: Achievements in and obstacles to reforms in energy, transport and environment
Authors: Laure Delcour and Klaudijus Maniokas
Release date: March 2019


The Association Agreements (AA) concluded between the EU and the three Eastern Partnership countries — namely Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia — are amongst the most comprehensive and detailed agreements the EU has concluded with any third country. Crucially, they are very ambitious in terms of law harmonization. The three associated countries have committed themselves to adopting a substantial part of the EU’s rules – the so-called acquis communautaire.

However, the scope and depth of reforms required from the associated countries is at odds with their current level of socio-economic development. While the EU expects the AA to serve as a blueprint for the modernization of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, the relevance of its acquis to their needs is to a large extent questionable.

This policy brief discusses the key issues faced by the partner countries in conducting domestic change (defined here as transposition and implementation of EU rules) in response to the AAs in the energy, environment and transport sectors. With the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTAs) and visa liberalization, the EU offers clear rewards in exchange for massive reforms (in the form of easier market access and people mobility, respectively). In contrast to trade and mobility, such tangible rewards are largely absent in the energy, transport and environment sectors. Therefore, we ask whether the EU’s promise of modernization through the acquis has proven effective to entice the three associated countries into wide-ranging policy change in these sectors.


New policy brief evaluating the EU’s Assistance to Ukraine


Title: Fit for Purpose? Evaluating the EU’s Assistance to Ukraine
Authors: Kataryna Wolczuk and Darius Zeruolis
Release date: March 2019


Ukraine opted for closer economic and political ties with the European Union (EU) when it signed an Association Agreement (AA) in 2014. The agreement, which includes a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), is a bilateral agreement that regulates relations between the EU and Ukraine; it also contains a free-trade area. The agreement covers a large swathe of the EU acquis – the accumulated body of acts and court decisions that constitute EU law. As well as removing (or lowering) tariffs and quotas, the AA-DCFTA will lead to the alignment of Ukraine’s regulatory frameworks with those of the EU.2 This process of ‘legal approximation’, whereby EU rules are incorporated into national laws and institutions are created or reformed to administer those rules, is often viewed as a technocratic, ‘low-politics’ process. However, it does require strong functioning institutions to enact a plethora of commitments, something that Ukraine has yet to develop. As it is, the AA commitments exceed Ukraine’s capacity to implement them. In recognition of this, the EU has stepped up its assistance to Ukraine since 2014. This paper will provide an overview of the support provided by the EU since 2014 with a view to assessing its effectiveness.


Release of working paper studying transfer of EU rules in the areas of transport, environment and energy to the EaP countries.

Title: Political Economy of Law Harmonization in EaP Countries: Informal Adjustment of Association?

Authors: Klaudijus Maniokas, Laure Delcour, Ildar Gazizulin, Veaceslav Berbeca, Ion Muntean, and Igor Munteanu


Abstract:

In our paper, we look at the conditions for successful transfer of European Union (EU) rules in the areas of transport, environment and energy to the associated Eastern Partnership countries. We assume that in these areas there are fewer indirect external benefits of implementing EU rules than in the areas of trade and visa free regime and therefore the adoption of these rules should depend more on their direct relevance to the governments of associated countries. Our review of law harmonization in all three countries is complemented by three in-depth case studies in all three areas. These offer an analysis of how EU standards and templates travel to this neighbourhood by delving into their adoption and implementation and assessing the degree to which they fit with governmental priorities. The first case study considers transport and focuses on the implementation of the road safety directive (2009/40/EC) in just one country, Georgia, where implementation proved challenging. The second case study concerns Ukraine and Moldova, focusing on the role of environmental impact assessment regulations in discussions between the two countries on the possible construction of hydropower plants on the Dniester River. In the area of energy, the third case study focuses on unbundling in the electricity sector in all three associated countries. Our main finding is that transposition and implementation in these areas is patchy, but better than expected. This is due to the on-going informal adjustment of the Association Agreements, which has reduced the scope of the commitments taken. While this informal adjustment helps to lighten the burden of law harmonization and facilitate transfer of the EU acquis, it does not seem to follow any blueprint, and thus creates uncertainty among the different stakeholders over future regulation.

Release of working paper studying China’s influence on Ukraine and Belarus’

Title: The effects of China’s economic expansion on Eastern Partnership countries

Authors: Marcin Kaczmarski, Jakub Jakóbowski, and Szymon Kardaś


Abstract:

This paper aspires to deconstruct China’s policy towards the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries as well as to measure and assess China’s impact on political regimes in the region. It places Beijing’s actions in the broader context of China’s grand strategy and its policy towards the post-Soviet space and the European Union alike. It focuses on the developments in China’s policy after 2009, i.e. following the start of the EaP. The paper scrutinizes the evolving relevance of the EaP countries for Beijing, deconstructs long-term Chinese goals towards these actors, and identifies key instruments and carriers of foreign policy on the part of Beijing. The study is based on a number of semi-structured interviews with representatives of Chinese academia, think tanks and administration conducted in 2017. In order to measure the impact of China’s policies on local political regimes, the article adopts the theoretical framework of Limited Access Orders (LAOs) and Open Access Orders (OAOs), developed by North, Wallis, and Weingast (2009), and further refined into a typology by Ademmer, Langbein, and Börzel (2018). The empirical analysis leads to the conclusion that due to China’s general foreign policy principles, as well as its recognition of Russia’s alleged interests in the region, Beijing does not aspire to alter local political regimes. However, in the case of Belarus, the Belarusian comprehensive economic and policy cooperation with China within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative is leading to increased economic openness and the evolution of Belarus’ LAO towards unbalanced closure. The article argues that China’s economic presence in the region brings both challenges and opportunities to the European Union’s policies, which need to be addressed proactively.